El Niño 2026 Leaves Death and Destruction

Heavy rains and flooding associated with El Niño have left at least 12 people dead in Ecuador, thousands affected, and extensive property damage as the climate phenomenon continues to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean. On November 9, 2026, the Ecuadorian government reported that rainfall had affected more than 43,000 people and damaged 13,743 homes, while another 52 were completely destroyed. Authorities also reported damage to 28 bridges and approximately 27 kilometers of roads. The country remains under a nationwide red alert as the threat of further emergencies continues.

Ecuador's National Risk Management Secretariat declared the red alert on August 29, after the National ERFEN Committee officially confirmed the presence of El Niño. By November 7, authorities had recorded 1,276 rain-related incidents across the country's 24 provinces, including 719 floods. Esmeraldas, Guayas, and El Oro were among the hardest-hit provinces, where overflowing rivers and landslides threatened homes, crops, and transportation routes. The government has distributed humanitarian assistance and continues to coordinate emergency response operations.

In Peru, extraordinary rainfall in late October and early November caused flooding in several communities in the Tumbes region, particularly in Zarumilla Province, where residents had to be evacuated. On November 2, the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service (SENAMHI) reported that some locations had received up to 110 millimeters of rain, an exceptional amount for the region. The agency linked the precipitation to the current coastal El Niño episode, characterized by unusually warm ocean waters near Peru's coastline. Authorities warned of additional rainfall and the possibility of overflowing rivers, landslides, and infrastructure damage.

Concern extends beyond the communities already experiencing the consequences. On October 30, Peru's Multisectoral ENFEN Commission warned that coastal El Niño could remain exceptionally intense through February 2027, bringing above-average rainfall to several regions. Meanwhile, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported on October 8 that El Niño was continuing to strengthen and estimated a greater than 83% probability that it would reach strong or very strong intensity between January and March 2027. These forecasts have prompted specialists to increase monitoring for potential flooding, droughts, and extreme temperatures.

El Niño is a natural phenomenon characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming changes atmospheric circulation and alters rainfall and temperature patterns in many parts of the world. Its name dates back to fishermen along the Peruvian coast who noticed that warmer ocean currents periodically appeared around Christmas, reducing their fish catches. They called it El Niño, meaning "the Child," in reference to the baby Jesus, whose birth is celebrated on December 25. Over time, scientists adopted the term to identify a broader climate phenomenon whose effects can be felt thousands of miles away.

Its counterpart, La Niña, occurs when surface waters in the same region of the Pacific Ocean become cooler than normal. Both phenomena are part of a climate system known as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between warm, cool, and neutral phases. During La Niña, certain regions may experience conditions opposite to those associated with El Niño, although the effects are not identical during every episode. These changes occur irregularly, generally every two to seven years, and can last several months or even longer than a year.

In South America, El Niño often brings heavy rainfall to parts of Ecuador and Peru, as well as areas of the southeastern continent, while other regions may experience drier conditions. In Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia, it is frequently associated with reduced rainfall and an increased risk of droughts and wildfires. In the United States, it can contribute to wetter winters across parts of the South and alter temperatures in other regions. These patterns do not mean that every extreme weather event is caused by El Niño, but rather that the phenomenon changes the likelihood of certain climate conditions.

History has shown that these phenomena can have devastating consequences. During the 1997–1998 El Niño episode, floods, droughts, and other weather-related disasters associated with its effects left more than 20,000 people dead and caused an estimated $36 billion in economic losses worldwide, according to data reported by NASA and NOAA. Peru and Ecuador experienced destructive flooding, while Indonesia faced severe droughts and wildfires. The episode became one of the most widely recognized examples of the human and economic toll these climate disruptions can inflict.

La Niña has also had serious consequences. Between February and March 2022, during a La Niña episode, extraordinary rainfall caused devastating floods in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia. According to Australia's National Emergency Management Agency, 23 people died, more than 14,000 required emergency accommodations, and approximately 5,000 homes became uninhabitable. Insured losses reached approximately 6 billion Australian dollars, while meteorological authorities noted that La Niña contributed to the unusually wet conditions that fueled the flooding, along with other atmospheric factors.

The emergencies recorded in recent months demonstrate the importance of preparing for changing climate conditions. Farmers face potential crop losses, while authorities must strengthen drainage systems, protect water supplies, and review evacuation plans. Scientific forecasts make it possible to anticipate risks, but the extent of the damage also depends on each community's ability to respond. With El Niño still developing and the possibility that it could reach exceptional intensity, the coming months will test the preparedness of numerous countries to protect lives and reduce economic and social losses.

Sabrina Pineda, Reporter

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