Ortega and the End of Nicaragua's Elections

https://youtu.be/T5ZzgvlIQmo

John Merolla

Reporter, Life News Today

The latest statements by Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega put the country back at the center of the international scene. During an official ceremony for the 47th anniversary of the Sandinista Revolution, held in the last weeks of July, the president said: "There will be no elections here again so that they can try to trap the government, to capture power," a phrase that was interpreted by much of the international community as confirmation that the country definitively abandons any attempt to maintain a democratic system. Although for several years human rights organizations and different governments have denounced that the Nicaraguan elections were no longer free or transparent, this time it was Ortega himself who made it clear that the ruling party does not contemplate the possibility of a political alternation. His words generated a strong repercussion in Latin America, the United States and Europe, where numerous leaders expressed concern about the institutional future of the Central American country.

To understand how Nicaragua got to this situation, it is necessary to go back several decades. Daniel Ortega was one of the main leaders of the Sandinista National Liberation Front, the guerrilla movement that in 1979 overthrew the dictatorship of Anastasio Somoza Debayle, ending more than forty years of domination by that family. At that time, Ortega was seen as a symbol of the fight against authoritarianism and promised to build a fairer democracy with greater social equality. He governed during the eighties, but in 1990 he lost the elections to Violeta Chamorro, accepted defeat and left power peacefully. However, he returned to the presidency in 2007 and since then began a process of concentration of power that, over the years, profoundly transformed the Nicaraguan political system.

During its first years of government, Nicaragua experienced a period of economic growth. The country received significant investments, increased tourism and had strong financial backing from Venezuela, which sent oil on favorable terms thanks to the alliance between Ortega and Hugo Chávez. The economy grew driven by exports of coffee, sugar, meat, gold and textiles, while thousands of families also depended on remittances sent by Nicaraguans working in the United States and Costa Rica. Although Nicaragua remained one of the poorest countries in Latin America, growth led to a reduction in some poverty indicators and improved infrastructure in different regions. However, this development was never accompanied by a strengthening of democratic institutions. Over the years, the ruling party began to control more state agencies, modified electoral laws, increased its influence over the judiciary, strengthened its control over the Supreme Electoral Council and eliminated limits on presidential reelection.

The breaking point came in 2018. That year, massive protests erupted against the government after a reform of the pension system, although the demonstrations quickly transformed into a broader claim against Ortega. The response of the State was strong repression. International organizations denounced that more than 300 people died during the clashes and thousands had to leave the country for fear of persecution. Since then, journalists, social organizations, universities, businessmen, students and representatives of the Catholic Church denounced a growing climate of political persecution. Many independent media outlets were shut down or moved their operations abroad, while opposition leaders began to be detained or forced into exile.

In the following years, the Government further deepened its control. In the 2021 presidential election, several of the main opposition candidates were jailed before the election or disqualified for running. Various governments and international organizations stated that these elections could not be considered free or democratic due to the absence of real political competition. Subsequently, Ortega promoted new constitutional reforms, strengthened the power of the Executive and, after a constitutional reform that created the figure of the co-presidency, he appointed his wife, Rosario Murillo, to the position.  This decision increased criticism of the concentration of power within the same family. The recent statements assuring that elections will not be held again to allow a change of government were considered by many analysts as the definitive confirmation of a process that developed slowly for almost two decades and that ended up turning Nicaragua into an authoritarian regime.

The daily reality of Nicaraguans reflects this political transformation. Although the country maintains lower levels of common violence than other Central American countries and continues to operate with relative economic stability, numerous international organizations denounce restrictions on freedom of expression, limitations on journalistic activity, surveillance of civil organizations and little space for political opposition. Thousands of citizens left Nicaragua in recent years in search of better job opportunities and an environment with greater freedoms. The economy continues to rely heavily on agricultural exports, the textile industry and remittances sent from abroad. Although the country managed to avoid an economic collapse like the one that occurred in Venezuela, poverty continues to affect a significant part of the population and economic growth is much slower than before the political crisis that began in 2018.

Ortega's words provoked an immediate international reaction. The United States described the statements as new evidence of democratic deterioration and ratified its policy of sanctions against Nicaraguan government officials. The European Union expressed its concern at the disappearance of democratic guarantees and once again called for respect for human rights and the release of political prisoners. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights also expressed concern about the country's institutional situation, while organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said the statements confirm years of allegations about the progressive elimination of civil liberties. Several Latin American governments also expressed concern, although other countries allied with Ortega maintained their political backing.

Nicaragua's future appears to be surrounded by uncertainty. If the government maintains the course announced by Ortega, it is likely that diplomatic isolation will continue and economic sanctions by the United States and the European Union will increase. New foreign investment could also be reduced, affecting economic growth and employment. Internally, the absence of competitive elections eliminates the main democratic mechanism for citizens to change governments through voting. At the same time, the opposition remains weakened by years of persecution, arrests and exiles, making it difficult for an organized political alternative to emerge.